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Overview of the Forex Market

Background

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of well over US$1 trillion -- 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. 

"Foreign Exchange" is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). 

There are two reasons to buy and sell currencies. About 5% of daily turnover is from companies and governments that buy or sell products and services in a foreign country or must convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency. The other 95% is trading for profit, or speculation. 

For speculators, the best trading opportunities are with the most commonly traded (and therefore most liquid) currencies, called "the Majors." Today, more than 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the Majors, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. 

A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.

The FX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'interbank' market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network. Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. 

Quoting Conventions

As with all financial products, FX quotes include a 'bid' and 'offer'. The 'bid' is the price at which a dealer is willing to buy (and clients can sell) the base currency for the counter currency. The 'ask' is the price at which dealers will sell (and clients can buy) the base currency for the counter currency. 

The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes. In the "Majors", this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair. The exceptions to USD-based quoting include the Euro, British pound (also called Sterling), and Australian dollar. These currencies are quoted as dollars per foreign currency as opposed to foreign currencies per dollar. 

To illustrate a typical FX trade, consider the following example. 

The current bid/ask price for USD/CHF is 1.4622/1.5627, meaning you can buy $1 US for 1.4627 Swiss Francs. 

Suppose you decide that the US Dollar (USD) is undervalued against the Swiss Franc (CHF). To execute this strategy, you would buy Dollars (simultaneously selling Francs), and then wait for the exchange rate to rise. 

So you make the trade: purchasing US$100,000 and selling 146,270 Francs. (Remember, at 2% margin, your initial margin deposit would be $2,000.)

As you expected, USD/CHF rises to 1.4835/40. You can now sell $1 US for 1.4835 Francs or buy $1 US for 1.4840 Francs. Since you bought Dollars and sold Francs in your previous trade, you must now sell Dollars for Francs to realize any profit. If you sell US$100,000 at the current USD/CHF rate of 1.4835, you will receive 148,350 CHF. 

Since you originally sold (paid) 146,270 CHF, your profit is 2080 CHF. To calculate Dollar-based P&L, simply divide 2080 by the current USD/CHF rate of 1.4840. 

Total profit = US $1313.13

Factors Affecting the Market

Currency prices are affected by a variety of economic and political conditions, most importantly interest rates, inflation and political stability. Moreover, governments sometimes participate in the Forex market to influence the value of their currencies, either by flooding the market with their domestic currency in an attempt to lower the price, or conversely buying in order to raise the price. This is known as Central Bank intervention. Any of these factors, as well as large market orders, can cause volatility in currency prices. However, the size and volume of the Forex market makes it impossible for any one entity to "drive" the market for any length of time.

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis

Currency traders make decisions using both technical factors and economic fundamentals. Technical traders use charts, trend lines, support and resistance levels, and numerous patterns and mathematical analyses to identify trading opportunities. Fundamentalists predict price movements by interpreting a wide variety of economic information, including news, government-issued indicators and reports, and even rumor. 

The most dramatic price movements however, occur when unexpected events happen. The event can range from a Central Bank raising domestic interest rates to the outcome of a political election or even an act of war. Nonetheless, more often it is the expectations surrounding an event that drives the market rather than the event itself.