MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS (GDX)
9/24/07 Update

Updating our look at GDX from July, the ETF rallied as expected, although it produced only a Wave D high within a larger Wave (4) triangle, which had one more downdraft remaining.  As I noted in the original Wave Watch, GDX began trading after May 2006, so it doesn't have much useful history for wave counting.  Therefore, we use the HUI and XAU indices for our wave GDX model, as both are moving in essentially the same wave patterns.

Consequently, the advance in GDX off its Wave (4) low of August 16 (32.77) has been rising impulsively, and did achieve a high at 45.96, which was in line with our earlier expectations.  As the revised and updated chart above shows, that high is counted as Wave 3, although it's possible to count it as a third of a third wave pattern, in which case Wave 3 could push further towards 47.82 before topping.  This count is a little closer to that for HUI, which is more similarly structured to GDX as far its stock components.  In any case, a Wave 3 pullback from current levels would have support at 43.60 and 42.74.  This allows us to revise the original upside projections for completion of Wave 5 of (5) to the 48-49 area, with further potential to 51.

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